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Football training Jose Mourinho

 

Manchester United’s Jose Mourinho praises Wayne Rooney as a “big player” and insists he “remains a big part of his plans” at the club. The press are suspicious, and actions talk louder than words.

 

Neither individual will enjoy the comparison, but Jose’s words mirror’s Janet Yellen’s of an interest rate hike in the USA – a great idea, and a big part of her plans, but still not on the field of play. Last December’s hike is beginning to look like a ‘one-off’. We might see another at the end of 2016, but the timing could not be worse – just after a Presidential election, and the rest of the world confirming ‘lower for longer’.

 

The price of oil is in the spotlight this week after easing on Friday, with OPEC talks perhaps coming to a stalemate in Algiers. Saudi this morning said it is willing to cut output to January levels, leading to an early oil price rebound today, but the additional output of Iran, Libya & Nigeria lie at the heart of oversupply and therefore OPEC talks. A lower oil price is the new norm, and a ‘normalisation’ of prices here, does nothing to help global inflation targets.

 

This week sees a fair amount of real data:

EU: IFO this morning will reveal German sentiment, and Thursday will see the release of German unemployment & inflation data. ECB President Draghi speaks this afternoon and will follow it up on Wednesday pm. Fridays mornings inflation (CPI) data will be the big mover.

 

UK: A light data week for GBP, with some lending data, but Friday’s (Q2)GDP data and current account numbers will be avidly watched, especially in light of the recent slump in GBP which seems to be driven by sentiment, not hard-data.

 

USA: Yellen’s speech on Wednesday (followed by 3 other speakers) & again on Thursday evening, will dominate alongside Thursdays GDP data for Q2. We also have Tuesdays PMI data, Wednesdays Durable Goods (expected to slump)

 

Also, in NORWAY last week the currency surged on the back of an indication that the central bank is ending its interest rate easing bias. A strong economy, low unemployment & steadying inflation give the bank no reason to have an easing bias (it has avoided negative int rates), and NOK surged on the back of it. EUR/NOK moved from 9.25 to 9.10.

 

Shipping is seeing a huge shift at the moment, following Hanjin’s bankruptcy and a fall in global economic activity. Despite a cash injection from Hanjin’s parent company, we are all desperately worried about whether the new Iphone will be in shops for Christmas. Danish shipping company Maersk announced a ‘split’ and ‘streamlining’ of its energy and shipping divisions last week. As we all know, these are not terms often used by companies experiencing a ‘boom’! The news that it has ‘had talks’ with another Danish powerhouse ‘Dong’ should be closely watched, as the face of global shipping and energy supply starts to shift.

 

Mid-rates:

GBP/EUR         1.1560

GBP/USD         1.2950

EUR/USD         1.1270

EUR/SEK         9.5850

EUR/DKK         7.4550

EUR/CAD         1.4780

GBP/AUD         1.7000

GBP/NZD         1.7900

 

 

Glenn Tullett

Infinity International

 

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